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7 NPA D + 22,625
Actual Early Vote spread: Clinton +29. In 2012, Obama was roughly +27K (+24. Final early vote party spread : 47. 71% (+30,645 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Clinton+13. 98% (+4,512 votes)
Final results: Clinton: +35,157 votes (60. Osceola
- heavy Hispanic suburban Orlando.
9% (+11,407 votes)
Final results: Trump +1. 4 NPA D +4,279
Actual early vote spread: Clinton +1. In 2012, Romney won by 15K votes (+3. Final early vote party spread: 42. 439 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Trump +8.
Business Insider discussed a number of topics with Whitehouse, including the lessons learned from President Donald Trump`s election, what the Democrats must sell to voters to win in 2018 and 2020, and the continually evolving role of money in politics.
So it seems as if there`s an overarching theme with those three, whether it be painting as soft on defense, getting a good economic message through, and highlighting corporate influence in politics, is that the messaging just has not been what it needs to be. How has this not been figured out? So what do you think has been the biggest issue - and I know you said you`re tired of hearing about messaging - but what`s really been the issue with this?
55% (+12,424 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Trump +25. In 2012, Romney was +19K votes (+6. 01% (+27,573 votes)
Final results: Trump +13. Imperial Polk
- between Tampa/Orlando
Final Early Vote Party Spread: 39. 4 NPA R +1,085
Actual Early Vote Spread: Trump +7.
What I guess I`m trying to get at is, if you`re a senator from New York, for instance - is there a way to avoid having Wall Street want to contribute a lot to your campaign to have some level of influence when you`re coming from a state like here where it`s, you know, so ingrained, it`s a home-state interest, and they have huge weight?
When you can get out your leaning-Republican vote, if you can get them out for Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, once they get in, they`re probably going to be more likely to vote for Trump. Whitehouse:
Yeah, I think that when you`ve got a largely zero-sum electorate, as there`s largely Republican and Democrat and not much else. That`s a pretty obvious way. And in addition to our Senate candidate getting defeated there as well. So I think the waves kind of built on each other, even if Koch people weren`t all that excited about Trump personally, but besides their operation in Florida undoubtedly helped Trump down there.
Because, frankly, we had just as good policies if not better in those areas. We just don`t talk about them. So those are the three right there. So that`s the proof that we can`t let ourselves get boxed in on it.
Our opening gambit is going to be to do kind of a scene-setter to go through the toolbox that Russia uses in our elections and in other elections to try to engage in election manipulation. And then evaluate that against what the laws are in the United States, which might be illegal, which might be legal . We can then move on to what was essentially done.
None of that is possible at New York, California, Texas scale. That wouldn`t be worth the trouble in Rhode Island, and people have different expectations, so they expect to hear me on the phone, they expect a personal aspect, a personal note of thanks. And that`s all fine at Rhode Island scale. So you have to move to another level and have basically a machine that grinds that out for you, with a lot less senator time dedicated to it. So I think that`s the big difference. I mean, Schumer`s fundraising is pretty legendary and I don`t think people expect that they`re going to have a signed note if they give him a thousand bucks. I`m still operating in an environment that is 10 or 15 years behind where you guys have to be.
I`ve never lived the Texas or the California experience. It`s really hard to raise it all making phone calls one at a time, even if you`re going to hit $5,000 per phone call, that`s just a hell of a lot of time. The sums involved are so enormous there that you really have to systematize your fundraising, and expectations are very different if you have to raise $30 million, $40 million in California to run successfully for reelection, that`s an awful lot of people. But my take is that the sums involved are so enormous there, say, compare Senate to Senate.
So I don`t have anything to add to that equation. So I think by the time we get down to hearings about that, this will have sorted itself out more. Whitehouse:
We are just getting started, and we are not in a position at this point to do heavy-duty, first-instance investigative work.
One was that he could get immense amounts of free airtime by being provocative. And, I don`t know, I`ve heard estimates it was as much as $1 billion, hundreds of millions of dollars anyway, worth of free airtime. And other people were buying airtime and looking boring and looking like traditional TV ads, which so many people have zoned out, because if you don`t know Americans for Puppies and Prosperity, how much do you really want to hear from them? Trump had two unprecedented advantages that no one saw coming.Smith:
I noticed a few Republicans after the recent meeting with FBI Director James Comey came out and made it very clear they were much more open to an investigation regarding Russia, looking into the influence it had on the election. I don`t know if you were in on that meeting, but do you know what went down in it and what seemed to be a flip of the switch where Republicans seemed to be much more open to looking into this?
This year, in their core markets, Republicans did much better on Election Day than the Democrats, winning them by 188K votes, compared to the Democrats only winning theirs by 70K, carrying a margin of roughly 120K votes out of their core markets. The GOP media market buckets (Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville and Fort Myers) and the Dem buckets (Tallahassee, Gainesville, West Palm and Miami) largely balance themselves out, and I-4 tilts it one way or the other. Start with my favorite analogy, Florida as a scale.
If you had given the Clinton campaign the option of spotting Trump a 20,000 vote win in Duval in exchange for both campaigns walking away, I would have urged them to take it. Clinton had one job in Duval, keep it manageable. After all, this is a county where Bush in 04 won by 61,000 votes, and given that Trump exceeded the Bush 04 margins in most counties, running up a big number here was a real possibility.
7%, which while significant, is lower than his statewide average increase of 8. What happened on Election Day is people didn`t vote. And then Election Day happened. Trump`s share of the two-party vote in Broward and Dade went from 32% to 38. 5% of early vote, and only 14. The issue here was different than I-4. Another way of looking ai: these two counties made up 21. 7% of the vote came on Election Day -- in Broward and Dade, it was 23.
So for the sake of this exercise, let`s start there: For most of early voting, I tracked a variety of benchmarks, namely Hillsborough (the only county that voted for Bush and Obama both times), the I-4 corridor counties, South Florida and #Duuuval county.
The combination of two unliked candidates, Trump`s success at driving the narrative into the ground, and all of the late-breaking issues going to Trump, it ended up being the perfect storm on November 8th, or in Trump`s case, the perfect 3-wood over water to that green 250 yards away.
I suspect what we will see when the Election Day voter data comes out that white NPA participation was quite high, balancing out the racial make-up of the NPA voter to look more like the electorate at-large.
When it boils down to it, Clinton won the county by about the same vote margin as Obama in 2012 (which was down from 08), but her vote share was down. Frankly going forward, Palm Beach is a place where Democrats need to up their game.
And then the Koch brothers` enterprise, even though it didn`t like him, was still active in bringing out the vote and organizing people, and you would bet that the people who were coming out for Marco Rubio and Ron Johnson and for Rob Portman and so forth, Toomey, were all coming out and also, virtually to a person, voted for Trump. And then when push came to shove, and he really needed to have the money, it all started pouring in, including a considerable amount from himself.
58% (+14,460 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Trump +12. Pete)
Final early vote party spread: 38. 3 NPA D +752
Actual early vote spread: Clinton +4. In 2012, Obama won by about 26K votes (+5. Pinellas
(Clearwater/St. 72% (+19,960 votes)
Final results: Trump +1.
` Everybody runs to the ball and you have you`re big Election Day surge. Then you go back and go back to work. Things like REDMAP and the redistricting plan that cooked the delegations in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin particularly, that took really careful strategic planning. The other thing that I see is that these big political enterprises can plan in ways that aren`t kind of customary politics. But that`s operating at a level of planning and sophistication that politics is not always marked by. And to get in there and advance and win the state legislatures, you had to get the mapping people who had to do this lined up, you had to get the maps drawn and get that through the state legislature, then you had to go out there and find the candidates and actually win the elections. Usually, it`s like `Here comes the election, up go the candidates, up goes the messages.
And I think the coils of the Koch operation are winding around the Oval Office. It wasn`t clear when he was elected that his brand of disruption was not potentially going to be pretty even-handed, and going after sacred cows on all sides. So it`s been discouraging for those of us who initially said, `All right, I don`t like this, but let`s look to see what he wants to do and see where we can work with him` - to find door after door just slammed in our faces. Whitehouse:
Letting in all the special interests.
Had the FBI Director not chosen to insert himself into the campaign with a week to ago, I suspect Clinton would have carried Pinellas (albeit very narrowly). Pinellas is a slightly different kind of animal, but his Election Day performance is probably indicative of late deciders breaking almost exclusively for Trump.It is essential to our patriotism. Well beyond party, well beyond individuals and all that. I think he`s been deeply concerned as an American - as someone who`s spent most of his life in uniform - that this is really bad stuff. And if something along these lines happened, this is something we have got to sort out.
PC gaming isn`t going anywhere. After all, people have been predicting its demise for 20 years now - it`s all piracy this, expensive hardware that, niche appeal this, compatibility problems that. In fact, it may even have expired by the time you read this introduction. No, really, it`s going to I cop it any day now.
I have no use or interest in playing the \"what if\" questions around third-party votes, so the data in here is just the two party vote. For what it is worth, this is pretty standard for my blogs. Every time I talk in percentages, those percentages are relative to the two-party, ie Trump v Clinton numbers.
Honestly, this surprised me. Clinton`s nearly 250K vote lead was actually at the upper-end of my projections. As I get more into this, and look at some of the benchmarks I tracked throughout, you can see the pattern for my optimism going into Election Day. However, almost everything was landing right on target for her to win. I suspected some of my optimism in the numbers leading up to the election was misplaced, and honestly thought as I put numbers into Excel, that we`d see she had gone into Election Day with a narrower lead.
9 NPA D +212,077
Actual early vote spread: Clinton +41. 7% (+254,391 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Clinton +18. 6 (+37,978 votes)
Final results: Clinton +34. In 2012, Obama won by 264K votes (+34. Final early vote party spread: 55.
The final percentage margin, 6. Trump won election day by just under 2 points, or right at 3,000 votes, so when all was done, Clinton carried the county by 41,000 votes. 8% was almost the same as Obama, and her raw vote win was about 5,000 votes larger. When the votes were cast, she carried the early voting period almost 44,000 votes, or almost 11% of the two-party vote.
And that simply doesn`t work on our side the way it does on the other side. Everybody, to have their issue at the forefront as your measure of success, your measure of success is we get in, and then we deliver for you. It`s an uphill fight to get a clear, distinctive, memorable message out of the cacophony of our multiple support groups.
9 NPA D +114,767
Actual early vote spread: Clinton +34. In 2012, Obama won by 208. 4% (+234,758 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Clinton +26. Final early vote party spread: 43. 7% (+55,389 votes)
Final results: Clinton +29.
Democrats can not blame losing on Broward and Dade not doing their jobs. That being said, these two counties both exceeded their projected share of the statewide vote, as well as set records for vote margins.
3%), and Broward was at 9. Going into Election Day, there was almost nothing that I didn`t feel good about in South Florida, and here is why: 87. 9% of all early votes came in from Dade (should be 10. 65% (should have been 8. 7% of the entire 2012 election turnout voted early in Dade. In Broward, it was a respectable 81%.
3% of the Elecion Day vote -- a surge which exceeded his statewide average. Hillary Clinton won the I-4 counties by almost 162K votes, but here the Trump surge on Election Day is very evident. She won these counties by almost 200,000 votes in the early/vbm phase, yet Trump won Election Day by almost 35,000 votes. 3% of the two-party vote, though only won 47. Overall, Clinton won the early phase with 56.
I mean, that just is a ridiculous proposition to think that ExxonMobil is going to make a public threat to spend $10 million against some congressman. It doesn`t happen that way. And although the Supreme Court in its naivety assumed that all of this was going to play out on a public stage in a way that everyone could see who was doing what, and it was going to be independent of candidates and it wasn`t going to be riddled with problems of integrity, the threat, which that decision enabled, was never going to be anything but private.
They edged out Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania. He was just so badly strafed as he pulled his candidacy out onto the runway that Rob Portman, who was behind him in the early polling, ended up winning by a huge margin. They turned Ron Johnson from a 12-, 15-point underdog into a narrow, real victory. So that`s a pretty big deal. Basically, people had given up on the race by then it was so catastrophic. And I think each one of those states was in the $20 million to $40 million expenditure range. They spent something like $40 million beating the crap out of the governor [Ted Strickland], so he never really got off the ground.
5% of Trump`s total margin in the Tampa and Orlando media markets came on Election Day. In total, Trump won 59% of the two-party vote in the Tampa and Orlando media markets on Election Day. Then we get to I-4, and this time, we look at it not as just as the counties on I-4, but every county in the two media markets. But on Election Day, Trump won by 242K votes. Going into Election Day, I-4 was pretty balanced, with Trump holding a 11K vote lead.To start at the most obvious - but, in some ways, least interesting - point, let`s talk action games. Its the point between then and now that contains lost wonders. From that came Wolfenstein 3D and Doom and - well, you know the rest. Until then, we didn`t even get an onscreen hand reinforcing the sense that the player was the game`s character. The earliest first-person-shooter was 1973`s Maze War, but it was id software`s 1991 fantasy shooter Catacomb 3D that really birthed the form as we know it.
However, Democrats went into Election Day with a bigger margin, having crushed the Republicans in early vote, by almost 260K votes. In fact, Clinton`s 141K final margin over Trump in the core partisan markets was a few thousand votes higher than Obama in 2012.
On the more tactical side of the coin is Syndicate, from gone-but-not-forgotten British uber-developer Bullfrog - a still gloriously immoral real-time squad tactics game that makes GTA look like Theme Park. Both threw down experimental gauntlets no-one else dared to pick up. Stepping sideways into strategy, again you`ve got Battlezone combining FPS, RTS and military sim, or the absolutely, awe-inspiringly unique Sacrifice (example spell:`bovine intervention`) boldly mixing action, roleplaying, comedy and a thousand new ideas-a-minute in alongside more familiar real-time strategy tropes.
They`re masked, you don`t know really who`s really who. And so trying to chase the pea back through that shell game and find out who the protagonist is becomes harder and harder for the American people. And that is frustrating and demoralizing and confusing and simply bad from a democracy point of view. You`ve got a real problem on your hands. That, I think, is the worst worry about it. You don`t know what the story is because the characters aren`t evident.
Stuff that people can envision and we can deliver. The second thing is, we have to have a really, really strong and simplified economic program. And to constantly be jumping from message point to message point, positioning yourself on issues without ever taking a step back, deciding what the hell you`re going to do, and jamming it through as best you can, or at least making it one hell of a big fight so that everyone in the country knows that it took place, I think is a mistake. I`ve spent 10 years in the Senate now, and the talk about messaging is making me increasingly insane. I don`t think you earn the right to a message until you`ve earned it by having a real fight, really being willing to stand up for what you believe in.
I was assuming going into Election Day, we were at about 67-68% of our total turnout, and while the Democrats had a 96,000 lead among registered voters heading into Election Day, I was operating from a place that her lead was between 3-4%, largely due to the overwhelmingly diverse nature of the NPA vote, which would put her raw vote lead between 180-250K votes.
This meant Trump had to win Election Day, on the low-end by about 5. 8% to upper end of 8%, just to break even. Both of these numbers are above Romney`s Election Day win in 2012 (I can`t remember McCain, but I suspect it is above McCain as well).
Peter Molyneux`s been muttering about reviving Syndicate`s satirical dystopia of corporate oppression and violence, but until (if ever) that happens, there`s a fan remake in the works, which the first level now complete, at freesynd.
9% of the statewide early vote, and it should have been 7%. 1% of the total Palm Beach County vote came in on Election Day, making up 9. 5% of the total statewide vote, the biggest single jump in the state. On the flip side, I was concerned about Palm Beach County the entire early vote period. Well it turned out on Election Day -- 41. And it was a Trump vote that showed up: after running up a 95K vote lead in the early vote, Clinton won Election Day by just over 7K. Even in my last memo, I called Palm Beach a \"red flag\" largely due to lagging turnout. While the Democratic margins were good, Palm Beach was only 5.
Make your own mind up with one of the various remakes at tinyurl. R owe a great debt to UU and its sole sequel, but fans feel it`s never been done better. Most recently, the likes of Oblivion and S.
7 NPA D +67,155
Actual Early Vote spread: Clinton +29. In 2012, Obama was +85,000 (+18. 729 votes)
Final spread: Clinton +134,678 votes (59. 71% (+116,949 votes)
Actual Election Day spread: Clinton +13. Orange
Final early party spread: 45.
While it`s early days for this, things can only get better. The past is indeed another country - but, when it comes to old PC games, lately we`re talking more Isle of Man than North Korea. On Steam alone, the last few months have seen the rediscovery of ancient treasures such as the earliest Wolfenstein, Unreal, Doom and GTA games.
For example, in Pasco, his vote share was 7. 1% greater than Romney. 69% higher on Election Day than in Early Vote, where as Romney was 2. In Polk, he was also 5. 1% higher, Seminole 5. Lucie, his vote share was 11. We saw similar things in the outlying counties in the Palm Beach market, where in St. 3% higher than Romney. 1% higher on Election Day, a 5. 2% increase on Romney, and in Martin County, where his Election Day improvement was 6.The county was a little below where it should have been for turnout. Hillsborough is typically about 6. 3%, largely because its Election Day share was down -- only 29% of Hillsborough votes came on Election Day. % f the statewide vote, but it landed at 6.
Last year, Gambell, the largest settlement, snared
just 36 - down from the 600 it could expect just a few years ago. In 2013, the island
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